Operational impact of trajectory prediction accuracy on air traffic automation tools

The relationship between the accuracy of aircraft trajectory predictions and performance of automation tools which depend on those trajectories is a key element in Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) concepts. This paper includes a literature review of research concerning this relationship. In addition, a study is presented which uses predicted trajectories from the En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) system. In laboratory simulations based on historical air traffic data collection, discrepancies are introduced between the “as flown” trajectory (based on recorded radar surveillance data) and the predicted trajectory used to provide decision support services to air traffic control. The performance of the Conflict Probe (CP) is then evaluated using established methods, and System Operating Characteristics (SOC) curves are generated at different levels of trajectory accuracy. This paper attempts to characterize and quantify trajectory prediction improvements in terms the end users can appreciate: impact to decision support tools.