Probabilistic assessment for HDVs rollover using second order reliability method

The rollover accidents under complex driving environments involving heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) often lead to serious consequences. For predicting rollover accidents, a probabilistic assessment model is proposed. Firstly, a specific vehicle dynamic model is developed with some random parameters taking into account wind velocity and road curvature. Then, the SORM (Second Order Reliability Method) approximations are developed to evaluate the probability of rollover accidents over the vehicle dynamics model. Finally, the probability model is applied to explore the interrelation and sensitivity of those parameters for their effects on the probability of the accident in different scenarios. The study suggests that the probabilistic methodology presented could be effective in estimating HDVs rollover under complex environment situations.