Uncertain Power Flow Analysis Based on Evidence Theory and Affine Arithmetic

A novel uncertain power flow analysis method is proposed in this letter. It utilizes evidence theory to fuse probabilistic, possibilistic, and interval uncertainties. Besides, the extended affine arithmetic is applied to handle variable dependencies existed in power flow. The final analysis results are represented as probability boxes (p-boxes). The comparisons with Monte Carlo simulation are given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.