The Adaptive Controlled Stratification Method Applied to the Determination of Extreme Interference Levels in EMC Modeling With Uncertain Input Variables

This paper deals with electromagnetic compatibility simulations at early design stage of equipment or systems development. In this context, expensive simulations based on rigorous modeling are performed, including numerous uncertain variables. The most important configurations are those associated to extreme values of the observed quantity. In this paper, we introduce a variance reduction technique to accelerate the estimation of an extreme quantile of the output probability distribution. The approach is based on using a simple model (at a low computational cost) to identify relevant realizations of uncertain variables in strata partitioning the output space of the model. Application of the method is detailed on a rather simple cable system in order to estimate an extreme quantile level of an interfering current. We show that the extreme current values are obtained at a reduced computational cost compared to a standard empirical quantile estimation.