Stochastic modeling and analysis of drivers’ decision making

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model of the human decision making. The main contributions of this paper are introduction of the logistic regression model as the mathematical model of the decision, development of the real time prediction of the decision based on the model, and proposal of some useful quantified measures to evaluate the characteristics of the human behavior. The proposed modeling and analysis strategies are applied to the driving behavior, in particular, focusing on the turn-right task in the intersections. Furthermore, two quantified measures “decision entropy” and “decision aggressiveness” are defined based on the estimated parameters in the logistic regression model. The objective evaluation made by these measures agrees well with the subjective evaluation made by the questionnaires.