Transferable Deep Kernel Emulator for Probabilistic Load Margin Assessment With Topology Changes, Uncertain Renewable Generations and Loads

The increasing uncertainties caused by the high-penetration of stochastic renewable generation resources and flexible loads pose challenges to the power system voltage stability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic transferable deep kernel emulator (DKE) to extract the hidden relationship between uncertain sources, i.e., wind generations and loads, and load margin for probabilistic load margin assessment (PLMA). This emulator extends the Gaussian process kernel to the deep neural network (DNN) structure and thus gains the advantages of DNN in dealing with high-dimension uncertain inputs and the uncertainty quantification capability of the Gaussian process. A transfer learning framework is also developed to reduce the invariant representation space distance between the old topology and new one. It allows the DKE to be quickly fine tuned with only a few samples under the new topology. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems demonstrate the strong robustness of the proposed transferable DKE to uncertain wind and load power as well as topology changes while maintaining high accuracy.