Comparison of models for short-term forecasting of electricity imbalances

The urgency of the problem of short-term forecasting of electricity imbalances in the modern electricity market of Ukraine and the growing share of renewable energy sources in the balance of the IPS of Ukraine are substantiated. The article compares the results of forecasting daily schedules of electricity imbalances using autoregressive models ARIMA, SARIMA and combined model, taking into account the influence of forecasted values of solar and wind generation. The actual data of the balancing market and volumes of electricity supply from RES were used for the research. Analysis of the results shows that the SARIMA models and the combined model have more accurate results.