Reliability analysis of loess backfilling slope stability by Monte Carlo simulation

Few studies investigated reliability analysis of high slopes backfilled with compacted loess. Owing to the spatial variability of backfill loess, a conventional deterministic investigation based on 2D limit equilibrium methods is unable to achieve an exact estimate of the slope failure. This study proposes a practical probabilistic slope stability analysis approach based on a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method, in combination with a 2-D limit equilibrium stability analytical approach, which is taken as a complementary method to a conventional analysis. A high multi-level slope backfilled with compacted loess in northwest China, is conducted a series of slope stability cases by the deterministic or probabilistic approaches. In consideration of the uncertainty of spatial variability of backfill loess, a comprehensive parameter investigation is performed to evaluate the effects of on side slope stability, including number of iterations, input soil shear strength parameters, inclination ratio of slope and limit equilibrium methods.