A Multi-Agent System for Fine-Grained Opinion Dynamics Analysis in Online Social Networks

The influence and dissemination of users’ opinions are the essence of the opinion dynamics in online social networks (OSNs). Understanding the process of users’ opinion formation and propagation can provide better service for public opinion monitoring and product advertising. However, most opinion dynamics research typically do not distinguish between user opinion formation and propagation, instead focusing on the process of mass opinion polarization. This article presents a multiagent system (MAS) to analyze fine-grained opinion dynamics (FOD) by agent-based modeling (ABM). At the macro level, the MAS-FOD system we designed can produce a statistical analysis of public opinion evolution based on different parameter constellations and analyze the changes in personalized agent opinions. At the micro level, the agent-based model is presented to describe the single user in OSNs as an individualized agent in MAS-FOD. Specifically, we propose two mechanisms, agent-based opinion formation (AOF) mechanism and agent-based opinion propagation (AOP) mechanism, for agents to form and disseminate opinions, respectively. Meanwhile, multidimensional social influence features mining from self, local neighbors, and global topic community are defined and used in two mechanisms to train personalized agents to self-adapt to the MAS-FOD system. We demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness of the MAS-FOD system from two types of experiments: empirical analysis and simulation analysis. The former is driven by empirical social network data to analyze the predictive performance of AOF; the latter simulates the public opinion propagation through the AOP mechanism in the MAS-FOD system. The results demonstrate that: 1) the AOF outperforms SOTA methods in the accuracy of agent opinion prediction; 2) the dissemination effect based on the AOP is more closer to the actual evolution trend of public opinion than the baseline; and 3) the MAS-FOD system can perform fine-grained analysis of opinion dynamics by adjusting different parameters.