A Medium and Long Term Orderly Charging Load Planning Method for Electric Vehicles in Residential Areas

The orderly charging load forecasting for Electric Vehicles (EVs) in urban residential areas(RAs) is of significance for planning the charging facilities and analyzing the load carrying capacity of distribution network as well as its expansion and reconstruction. In this paper, a mid-and long-term load forecasting method for EVs orderly charging in RAs is proposed based on the number and charging probability of EVs. Nonlinear programming is used to solve the optimization objective function of orderly charging, and the typical daily load characteristics in urban RAs are used to forecast the orderly charging load of EVs and the overall load in the station area on working days and at weekends in the past three years and the target year. Simulation results show that orderly charging can improve the capability of distribution network in residential areas to accommodate EVs and postpone its upgrade and reconstruction time.