A Load Curve Forecast Method for Active Distribution System Based on Button-to-up Spatial Load Forecasting

With the construction of the active distribution power system and the applications of modern technology such as active demand response and big data analysis, the influence of flexible load on load forecasting should be the focus at the planning level of the active distribution system. A load curve forecast method for active distribution system is put forward. First, the area is divided into unit of power area according to the nature of land and function boundary. The load demand of each unit area is divided into rigid and flexible demand. Then the transferable load and adjustable load regulation model are established which are used to simulate the regulation action effect on the load demand curve under the active regulation strategy. Finally the load demand curve is obtained through all the unit area load superposition from button to up. In case study, compared with the traditional load forecast results, the load demand will be more close to the actual operation condition considering the active management strategy of flexible load demand, which can provide guidance for the future construction of active distribution network and the implementation of active management strategy.