Tellurium Availability for the PV Industry Using a System Dynamics Approach

Tellurium is one of the rarest elements on earth. With the increased deployment of solar energy, the CdTe PV market is expected to grow substantially, exacerbating resource depletion. This study uses system dynamics to assess the availability of tellurium for the PV sector by 2050. Historical data analysis on tellurium production, demand and price shows a negative correlation between tellurium price and annual tellurium surplus. The accumulated tellurium surplus was estimated to be 4,030 metric tons by 2018. Preliminary results from the system dynamics model show a potential production gap, which is when demand surpass production between 2027-2034 and 2038-2043. The peak production gap is 443 kg in 2030 and 404 kg in 2042. However, considering historical production and accumulated tellurium stocks, no supply gap is expected. Finally, global tellurium stocks are expected to decrease by 21.6%, from 6960 metric tons in 2023 to 5454 metric tons in 2050.