Real-time Prediction Algorithms to Detect Clouds and Forecast Photovoltaic System Performance

When clouds roll over photovoltaics (PV) arrays, PV systems' output power fluctuates. As a result, the PV penetration into the power grid causes energy imbalance and technical problems such as voltage instability in distribution networks. We designed an intelligent Cloud Motion Vector Sensor (CMVS) system model that utilizes gradient matrix and peak detection algorithms to compute cloud motion parameters such as cloud speed and direction. A predictive PV System model is also designed in Simulink that uses a perturb and observes maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm to predict the performance of the PV system. Power management companies may benefit from the two models to better manage grid integration of renewables and non-renewables in the energy mix.