An ODE-fitting approach to estimate critical aircraft performance parameters for trajectory prediction

Ground-based decision support tools (DST) in air traffic management (ATM) typically perform trajectory prediction based on aircraft performance model (APM) parameters, some or all of which might not be readily available. In particular, the three critical parameters required for trajectory prediction are the thrust setting, drag coefficients, and takeoff mass of the aircraft. This paper is the first of its kind to propose a generalized framework for the simultaneous estimation of all three critical APM parameters. The proposed approach utilizes data from both the climb and descent phases and fits the ordinary differential equation for altitude in each phase using historical trajectory data available from radar tracks. The approach yields a set of optimized APM parameters that are best suited to fit each historical flight record. The methodology is applied on on sample flights from three different aircraft types, and the results demonstrate low fit error and consequently will yield a high level of prediction accuracy.