Analyzing the Potential Freight Market Segments of the Modal Shift from Road to Rail Using Latent Class Modeling

This paper investigates freight market segmentation to seek the potential market of modal shift from road to rail-based intermodal (only pre- and end- haulage are transported by road), using discrete choice analysis. The Defficient design approach was used to generate SP scenarios. The data, including 2160 SP observations of 135 companies, was collected in China's Yangtze River Delta region. The multinomial logit (MNL) model, the mixed logit (ML) model, and the latent class (LC) model were constructed successively. Freight mode attributes (cost, time and reliability), shipment characteristics (distance, time threshold), cargo characteristics (value and density) were considered. In addition, the logistics elements such as the stages of production process and psychological characteristics such as choice inertia were also introduced in this paper. The results show that the LC model with segment variables performs better than the counterpart without segment variables, the MNL model and the ML model. Using the LC model, shippers are classified into four market segments. There are significant differences in shippers' preference among different classes. Based on the class membership function, the characteristic of each class can be identified by a combination of different attributes. The difficulty of achieving the modal shift from road to rail-based intermodal is ranked according to the values of attributes, further determining the priority of the potential market. This study helps to understand the shippers' freight mode choice better. Rail service suppliers can design transportation products that match the shippers' demand characteristics for different classes to improve the market share.