Cyber-Impact Analysis for ISO Revenue Adequacy Considering FDIA in Real-Time Market Operations

The consensus on the potential of market-targeting cyberattacks to cause catastrophic damage has driven recent research on electricity market cybersecurity analysis. This paper identifies two missing components in current literature. First, ISO revenue adequacy has not been analyzed under the context of cyberattacks. The false data injection attacks (FDIAs) could disturb the market settlement impacting revenue adequacy for ISOs. The lack of such analysis prevents ISOs from comprehensively assessing the financial consequences of market cyberattacks. Second, market attackers need to anticipate the market-clearing results to maximize their attack objectives. Thus, current literature focuses on formulating the attacker model and the market-clearing model as a bilevel problem. However, the coupling between the attack decision, the dispatch at ex-ante, and the price calculation at ex-post have not been explored. To fill those two research gaps, this paper first analytically explores the impact of FDIAs on real-time market operations on ISO revenue adequacy. Then, cyber-impact analysis is proposed to numerically analyze the revenue adequacy. The attacker model, ex-ante dispatch model, and ex-post incremental model are formulated as a trilevel problem to provide a reliable cyber-impact analysis on revenue adequacy. The proposed analysis and platform are demonstrated with the New-England 39-bus system.