Probability Evaluation Method of Available Transfer Capability Considering Source-Load Side Uncertainty

Large scale wind power integration and demand response has brought uncertainty to both source and load side of power system which brings new challenges to the evaluation of available transfer capability (ATC) of power system. In order to evaluate the ATC under source-load side uncertainty more accurately, a probability evaluation method of ATC considering source-load side uncertainty is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the source-load side uncertainty is characterized by Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based method. Then the calculation of ATC and existing transfer commitments (ETC) is done by the optimal power flow (OPF)-based model which both source and load side uncertainty is taken into consideration, and to ensure a globally optimal solution, the model is transferred into a second-order conic programming (SOCP) model. Finally, the Monte-Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the probabilistic ATC, and the modified IEEE 30-bus system is used as an example to analyze the influence of source-load side uncertainty on the evaluation of ATC and verify the correctness and validity of the proposed method.