The Effect of Climate Change on Variable Renewable Energy in South Africa: A Trend Analysis

The advent of climate change (CC) resulting from anthropogenic carbon emissions has resulted in increased adoption of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources in electricity generation as part of emissions mitigation strategies. Consequently, there has been an upsurge in the uptake of solar and wind resources in South Africa. However, as VRE sources depend on meteorological conditions, it is anticipated that VRE sources are likely to be affected by CC. This paper seeks to establish whether there are historic trends in solar and wind resource availability and variability in South Africa that can be attributed to CC. Understanding the shifts in resource potential would aid policy makers and network planners in optimally selecting and siting future VRE generators. A trend analysis was conducted using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset spanning the period from 1951 to 2020. Results indicated that the summer season has shown significant declining trends in solar and wind energy resource. Generally, in areas with good resource potential, less significant changes were observed compared to areas with poorer resource potential, which showed stronger decreasing trends along with increased variability. It is recommended that further analyses be conducted using climate projections to assess future resource shifts and changes to underlying patterns of variability.