Generation Expansion Planning in Switzerland Considering Climate Change Scenarios

In this work a formulation of the generation expansion planning problem is applied to the detailed Swiss power system to study the impacts of possible climate-driven changes in hydro inflows on the country's generation portfolio in 2050. To capture the influence of electricity trade on the investment decisions, we include an aggregated representation of the production capacities of the surrounding countries under a net-zero GHG emission scenario and market-based tie line constraints. Our results show that investing in new generators in Switzerland is more economically viable than relying only on imports regardless of the simulated hydrological conditions. Despite the projected annual decrease in hydro inflows during a typical hydrological year impacted by climate change, the total system costs are lower compared to a typical year under current climate conditions. This is due to the fact that in the future we expect wetter winters and thus more water during months when the system load is higher.