Analysis of Grain and Seed Oil Production in Ukraine Prior to Recent Russian Invasion

The invasion by Russia could affect Ukraine’s ability to keep its status quo as one of the most prominent grains and seed oil producers and exporters in the world as of the year 2022. This paper analyzes the data on Ukraine’s grain and seed oil production since 1987 and aims to identify and utilize the most suitable machine learning model to predict the production level of grain or seed oil in Ukraine. Three linear models (Multivariable Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression) and three non-linear models (Decision Tree Regression, Random Forest Regression and k-Nearest Neighbors Regression) were implemented during this study. Due to the small sample size, over-fitting was observed in the non-linear models. The results suggest that Lasso Regression model is best-suited for use as a tool to predict the amount of production in a year for a certain commodity.