Model-based epidemic data reconstruction using feedback linearization

In this paper, a model-based method is proposed for the reconstruction of non-measured epidemic data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary. Only the data series showing the daily number of hospitalized people are used for the reconstruction together with a nonlinear dynamical model of epidemic spread containing 8 compartments. The unknown input of the model is the infection rate, which is computed through the solution of a feedback linearization-based asymptotic output tracking problem, where the reference is the actually observed number of hospitalized people. Computations show good match with of hospitalized people. Computations show good match with previous reconstruction results, and show a roughly 3.5-4-fold underdetection of infections until the Omicron wave.