Grade Crossing Incidents: A Probability Analysis

We analyze five railroad grade crossings in California, exploring the issue of collision likelihood and overall risk of incident. Crossings analyzed include Grape Street in San Diego, Rosecrans-Marquardt in Santa Fe Springs, Cutting Boulevard in Richmond, Bellevue Avenue in Atwater, and Grand Avenue in Carlsbad. Multiple sources estimating the number of collisions by crossing per year are discussed, as well as explanation of the methodologies involved and their possible shortcomings. Images collected from Google Maps are shared in order to better represent each crossing and the surrounding geographical features that help to define them. We also used information from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), and the United States Department of Transportation (DOT) [1, 2, 3]. These were sources for our defining key statistical parameters of each of the crossings, approximations of the number of collisions per year, and actual collision history at each crossing. Potential solutions and technologies that may serve to better mitigate and eliminate risk to human life and property are also presented.