Effects of accelerated coal phase-out and enhanced renewables on redispatch and carbon distribution

Ongoing efforts to combat anthropogenic climate change require a radical restructuring of power systems, grid development and the replacement of fossil powered plants by carbon neutral energy sources. Following the 2021 federal elections in Germany, political ambitions to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement have substantially increased in Germany. In the course of this, it is endeavored to further expedite the process of hard coal and lignite phase-out, ideally accomplishing the goal by 2030. It is further planned to accelerate the expansion of renewable energy sources, especially photovoltaics and wind power. In this work, a model of the European power system based on a data set of the German grid development plan for 2030 is developed. Detailed technical data of the large parts of the European grid on transmission and distribution level, generation structure and node level hourly renewable energy supply and load are incorporated. Resultant, a security constrained unit commitment economic dispatch model is derived that allows to approximate the European electricity market, redispatch and local curtailment. Results show, that the grid can in principle absorb higher shares of renewables than planned originally, and injections from German coal-fired plants can almost be eliminated. However, if not complemented by substantially high carbon prices, measures taken in Germany alone lead to carbon exports to foreign country.