Predicting the Trajectories of the Development of Situations from a Given Phase Based on the Logical Conclusion of the Consequences

A method is proposed for predicting the trajectories of situations from a given phase based on the logical conclusion of the consequences. The method makes it possible to solve problems arising when using other forecasting methods related to the complexity of interpretability and justification of the results obtained. The formal description of situations is carried out using first-order predicate calculus formulas, which differ in relative simplicity of interpretation. Forecasting is based on deductive logical deduction of consequences from a knowledge base containing rules for the development of the situation and facts characterizing a given phase of the situation. The method of inference of final consequences with the formation of a description of the logical inference scheme is used. The output scheme represents a long-term forecast, which in general contains several branches that determine different trajectories of the situation. The logical inference scheme clearly represents a long-term forecast and reflects the rationale for the results obtained. It is assumed that the situation develops in discrete time, the report of which begins simultaneously with the adoption of a long-term forecast. As the situation develops, new facts are received that correspond to the events taking place. It is proposed to use a series of short-term forecasts. The short-term fore-cast is made for the next moment in time in accordance with the long-term fore-cast and new facts and determines the events (facts) that are expected at the next moment of the situation development. At the same time, it is taken into account that the incoming facts may not confirm some predicted statements and lead to the exclusion of certain branches of logical inference, thus reducing the number of trajectories of the situation. An example of predicting the trajectories of the development of situations from a given phase based on the logical conclusion of the consequences is given.