A Non-linear Scenario Plotting to Guide Strategists : A Hybrid Model between Foresight and Computational Intelligence methods

The aim of this article is to integrate a typical scenario plot of the Schwartz approach [25], [30] with the FCM method [3], [6]–[7] mediated by stakeholder Participatory Modeling (PM) processes, to strengthen the system thinking approach during a strategic decision-making process guided by strategic foresight. The combination of these approaches provides a better understanding of the scenario alternatives available to decision makers. This is, recognizing the context of the focal question with creative scenario plots that show the interaction between its key drivers. Therefore, the hybrid model, should be useful to unify the strategic point of view by recognizing the most plausible scenario, while reducing the uncertainty due to ambiguous value judgments by Key Decision Makers (KDMs).The work presented in this article aims to develop hybrid model by combining qualitative and quantitative approaches to engage a new non-linear form of systems thinking about the future. The article includes a conceptual model and an experimental case that develops a case for rethinking the ideas of a research system for a local organization.The article ends with a reflection on outcomes and suggests ways for future research.