Electromobility Charging Behavior Modeling Using Polynomial Regression Approach

As is electromobility is still expanding, its effects on the power grid need to be expected and be prepared for. This paper is analyzing the possibilities of creating a very simple probabilistic model while keeping the outputs still accurate enough for most of the applications in power engineering. The simplicity and flexibility of this model are proposed by using the polynomial regression on the initial probability density functions and weighted random choices variables. These approximations are then defined in all the time frames during the simulation, which makes also the time step easily variable. The proper means of finding the polynomial regression functions are introduced, as well as the usage in the complete probabilistic model algorithm. Verification of the proposed model is carried out using open data. Applications and further extensions of the model are discussed.