Long-Term Operating Reserve Assessment of Power Systems with Variable Renewable Generation via Cross-Entropy Method

This paper presents an approach to assess power system reliability indices, from the long-term operating reserve perspective, with intermittent renewable generation via cross-entropy (CE) method. The proposed approach relies on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) due to its suitable characteristic to represent time dependent events, and CE method due to its ability to accelerate the convergence of the simulation. The CE optimization process is driven so that proper distortions are applied not only to equipment unavailability, but also to load and wind production forecast uncertainties, bearing in mind operating reserve failure events. The methodology is tested using modified configurations of the IEEE RTS.