PRESTO: Predicting System-level Disruptions through Parametric Model Checking

Self-adaptive systems are expected to mitigate disruptions by continually adjusting their configuration and behaviour. This mitigation is often reactive. Typically, environmental or internal changes trigger a system response only after a violation of the system requirements. Despite a broad agreement that prevention is better than cure in self-adaptation, proactive adaptation methods are underrepresented within the repertoire of solutions available to the developers of self-adaptive systems. To address this gap, we present a work-in-progress approach for the prediction of-system-level disruptions (PRESTO) through parametric model checking. Intended for use in the analysis step of the MAPE-K (MonitorAnalyse-Plan-Execute over a shared Knowledge) feedback control loop of self-adaptive systems, PRESTO comprises two stages. First, time-series analysis is applied to monitoring data in order to identify trends in the values of individual system and/or environment parameters. Next, future non-functional requirement violations are predicted by using parametric model checking, in order to establish the potential impact of these trends on the reliability and performance of the system. We illustrate the application of PRESTO in a case study from the autonomous farming domain.