Dynamic model change analysis of social behavior processes during the COVID19 pandemic

In this paper, an analysis of changes in dynamic process models described by variables that represent social behavior from the point of view of people’s mobility and of economic indices in the framework of the COVID19 pandemic is presented. Here, the mobility described by Google and Apple is used as a proxy for the social behavior to correlate it with the dynamic evolution of daily COVID19 infections. In addition, indices related from the global economy are used as a proxy of the socio-economic process, where two of ascending evolution (MSFT Microsoft and NASDAQ, Inc.) and another with smooth evolution (WTI oil gallon price) are analyzed. The evolution of such proxies are related to the daily COVID19 cases. In the latter case, it is difficult to detect a territorial region of influence given the number of origins of influences that the selected indices have, but the impact of the first peak in China and the subsequent evolution in the world can be studied, especially in our country and in the Netherlands. The main findings include that the underlying model for social behavior has changed in different stages, depending on the months of the year and that after mid-2021 an unstable equilibrium is on the track, with the addition of the new possibilities provided by the vaccination process and the rules of social coexistence. It is concluded that it is necessary to analyze which decision should be taken at the social level of public policy and which personal decisions for each individual.