Research on Travel Speed Reliability Based on Congestion Tolerance Perception of Car Commuters

On-time arrival is very important for car commuters. What is the minimum acceptable travel speed of the car commuters in the case of ensuring on-time arrival? What's the on-time arrival probability of the car commuters at the acceptable travel speed based on the current urban road speed? This research seeks to establish a simple, effective, and trusty acceptable travel speed model based on the expectation and tolerance of the car commuters for urban road traffic. And a travel speed reliability model of car commuters' congestion tolerance perception was established based on actual revealed preference survey data of car commuters. The results illustrate that the acceptable travel speed is equal to 0.71 multiple average travel speed, their value of correlation coefficient R
²
is 0.96, and prediction accuracy of the acceptable travel speed model is larger than 75%. The analysis results of three months of road section speed data illustrate that the on-time arrival probability of the car commuters at the acceptable travel speed is larger than 60% in Beijing Jingtong Expressway. The research objectively quantitatively evaluates the congestion tolerance of car commuters based on travel speed reliability. It opens up new possibilities for urban road traffic accurate assessment and effective operation management based on the expectation and tolerance of travelers, and it will be contributing to improving and enhancing urban road traffic operation service quality.