An equivalent reliable capacity calculation method of wind power and photovoltaic considering reserve

Due to the intermittency and fluctuation of wind power(WP) and photovoltaic(PV), it is difficult to estimate their reasonable values accurately when calculating the power balance. Hence, an equivalent reliable capacity calculation method of wind and photovoltaic power considering reserve is proposed in this paper, which takes the minimal load shedding as the objective function and constraints the model in power balance, output of existing generators and additional reserve operation. System reserve capacity is added based on the certain gradient and Monte Carlo Sampling(MCS) is adopted to determine the upper bound of the existing units. Finally, the equivalent reliable capacity of WP and PV in east China Power Grid is calculated by empirical analysis. Moreover, the impact of energy storage(ES) on WP and PV credible capacity is analyzed.