Reliability Tracing Method of HVDC System Based on Shapley Value Allocation

It is of great significance to evaluate the reliability of High Voltage Direct Current transmission (HVDC) system, identify the weak parts and quantify the contribution of subsystems to system unreliability. However, the existing weak part identification methods based on the reliability tracing theory of HVDC system are based on the proportion-allocation criterion, and the reliability indices of the system are allocated evenly, with large errors. Therefore, this paper proposes a reliability tracing method of HVDC system based on Shapley value. Firstly, the state enumeration method is used to enumerate the set of all capacity insufficiency event. Then, based on the proposed method, the reliability indices of each capacity insufficiency event are allocated to the related failure subsystems. Finally, the contribution of each subsystem to system unreliability is obtained by summation of the contribution of all capacity insufficiency events to each failure subsystem. A double twelve pulse HVDC system is used for case study to prove the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.