Uncertainty-based Risk Calculation for Regional Grid Planning Assessment and Optimization

China is in a critical period of energy transition, and with the double carbon target, new energy sources are gradually entering the regional grid. Large-scale distributed new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic are connected to the grid, and the fluctuation of power load brings many uncertainties to the grid. Traditional grid planning methods are no longer able to respond to the uncertainty of the grid and cannot meet the demand of society for reliable energy supply. This paper therefore investigates the evaluation and optimisation of regional grid planning based on uncertainty risk calculations. This paper presents the definition and calculation of risk, and uses the results of probabilistic tide calculations for further risk calculations. Further, the optimization model for the planning of new energy grid connection points in regional grids is constructed with the objective of minimizing system risk by combining the blind number theory, and the optimal solution for new energy grid connection is obtained by solving with an improved genetic algorithm. Finally, the IEEE39 bus system is used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.