The relationship between temporal surface temperature trends and soil moisture status: an exploratory study with a coupled landsurface-atmosphere model

In this study, we will demonstrate the uncertainty in the atmosphere evolution of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model due to uncertainty in land surface fluxes. The NWP Model used in this work is the Computational Environmental Modelling System (CEMSYS 3) developed at the University of New South Wales. Simulations have been carried out for the whole of the Australian continent using 50 km grid spacing, with atmospheric forcing data supplied by the US National Center for Environmental Processes (NCEP). The simulations have been carried out for February 1996 for a range of continent-wide initial surface wetness conditions. The results show strong associations between simulated time sequences of soil moisture availability and surface heating rates.