Application and Optimization of ARIMA Model and BP Neural Combined Model in the Prediction of Population Aging

After entering the 21st century, the problem of population aging across the country has become increasingly prominent, which has brought severe challenges to the regional social security system. In view of this, based on the combination model of ARIMA time series and BP neural network, the future trend of population aging during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period is predicted on the basis of an in-depth analysis of the current situation of national aging. The results of the study show that the national population aging problem has become a bottleneck for economic and social development, and the number of elderly people and their proportion in the country will show a significant increase in the next five years. Finally, a number of policy recommendations were put forward based on the research conclusions, and the results showed that the accuracy of the prediction results of the ARIMA and BP neural network combined model increased by 9.7%.