Forecast of Power Grid Asset Investment and Production Cost Based on Regression Analysis

During the past 13th Five-Year Plan period, China’s power grid development has made major achievements that proportion of new energy power generation has continued to increase, and major breakthroughs have been made in power electronic technology and high-voltage direct current transmission. With the continuous applications of new technologies in the power system, transmission and distribution losses are reduced, operation efficiency of power grid is significantly improved in order to adapt to the new changes in the power grid, power grid asset investment (PGAI) and production cost (PC) have also shown a new trend along with the development of the power grid. Predicting the PGAI and PC of modern power grids is of great significance for power grid asset management, development trend forecasting and investment decision-making. A forecast method is proposed for PGAI and PC based on regression analysis in this paper. The case study results of a provincial power grid verify the effectiveness of proposed forecast method.