An Attack Path Prediction Method based on The Attack-Defense Game Theory in CBTC

With the widespread application of communication based train control (CBTC) technology, the level of informatization and automation of urban rail transit has been improved. However, the application of most general computers, communication and control technology have made the information security problem of the CBTC prominent increasingly. Based on the architectural features and operating mechanism of the CBTC, this paper analyzes the vulnerability of the system and constructs a CBTC attack path library based on the penetration attack graph. We introduce the attack and defense game theory to establish a non-cooperative and incomplete information static game model for the attack and defense process of CBTC. The system can predict the attack path based on the min-max criterion. The simulation results of the ZC subsystem show that the attack prediction model can predict the attack path and give key defense suggestions.