A New False Data Injection Attack Detection Model for Cyberattack Resilient Energy Forecasting

As power systems are gradually evolving into more efficient and intelligent cyber–physical energy systems with the large-scale penetration of renewable energies and information technology, they become increasingly reliant upon more accurate and complex forecasting. The accuracy and generalizability of the forecasting rest, to a great extent, upon the data quality, which is very susceptible to cyberattacks. False data injection (FDI) attacks constitute a class of cyberattacks that could maliciously alter a large portion of supposedly protected data, which may not be easily detected by existing operational practices, thereby deteriorating the forecasting performance causing catastrophic consequences in the power system. This article proposes a novel data-driven FDI attack detection mechanism to automatically detect the intrusions and thus enrich the reliability and resiliency of energy forecasting systems. The proposed mechanism is based on cross-validation, least-squares, and
z
-score metric providing accurate detections with low computational cost and high scalability without utilizing either system’s models or parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed detector is corroborated through six representative tree-based wind power forecasting models. Experiments indicate that corrupted data injected into input, output, and input–output data is properly located and removed, whereby the accuracy and generalizability of the final forecasts are recovered.