Research on Risk-Based Planning of Power Grid Considering the Access of New Energy

With the low-carbon and sustainable development of the power system, there are more and more new energy such as wind and solar power, as well as storage devices being switched into the grid. Source, grid, load and storage in the power system are all uncertain, bringing series of risks to the system. In order to improve the ability of the power grid to resist risk accidents, a grid planning method that takes risks into account is proposed in this article. First, probabilistic models for load, wind and solar power generation are established to characterize their randomness and volatility, and a charge and discharge strategy for energy storage (ES) devices is developed. Then, with the goal of minimizing load reduction, a probabilistic optimal power flow calculation method based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is proposed to quantify the risk caused by uncertain factors. Moreover, a two-tier planning model of the power grid is developed based on a life cycle cost (LCC) analysis, where the objective function includes the cost of risk loss. Finally, the improved 18-bus system is constructed as an example for multi-scene planning, and the planning model is solved by the improved whale optimization algorithm (WOA). The results illustrate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.