Backcasting Technical and Policy Targets for Constructing Low-Carbon Power Systems

Achieving the low-carbon transition of power systems requires the coordination of renewable energy generation and other emerging electricity technologies. Their technical indicators are changing rapidly since these technologies are in the initial stages of development. Determining the technical and policy targets for achieving the low-carbon transition is critical for regulators and power system planners. This paper defines this problem as a backcasting problem, whose concept is derived from environmental science research. We introduce it into the power system planning field and innovatively model it as a bi-level optimization problem. According to the characteristics of the backcasting problem, an improved barrier method is proposed to solve it efficiently. The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm are verified through case studies on a modified Garver’s 6-bus system and a realistic Northwest China power system, and they are compared with state-of-the-art solution techniques. The results of the backcasting problem provide a new perspective on the economic impacts of the low-carbon transition and are helpful in energy policy formulation for power systems.