Montecarlo Simulation In COVID-19 Infection Scenarios To Forecast Industrial Labor Suspensions In Mexico

In the present investigation, the Monte Carlo simulation was applied to the COVID-19 contagion scenario in Mexico. This to evaluate a possible suspension from work through the use of the deterministic SIR model. The research was developed using a descriptive model, since it is only intended to expose the operation of the system. The random variable considered was the infection rate, also known as the basic reproduction number R0, which fluctuates between 0.5 and 2.5. A dynamic transmission rate and a constant recovery rate were applied in the investigation. An Excel spreadsheet was used, and the data obtained was plotted. The data taken for the simulation was from February 20, 2020, to January 31, 2021. The result reflected a significant difference between the historical data and the data obtained in the simulation, this due to the behavior of the dynamic variables that indicated an approximate error of 6,600,000. It can also be observed that the infected cases obtained from the simulation maintain a positive slope, therefore, there is the possibility that this variable will continue to grow. It is worth mentioning that for there to be a work suspension, it was considered that the average R0 was greater than 1.79, considering this as an intermediate value when industrial work was suspended in Mexico. The result obtained from the average R0 was 1.43, which promises a considerable decrease in infections and in view of the restriction, it was concluded that there is no new work suspension in Mexico due to COVID-19. But considering that R0 is greater than 1, there is latency of infections, therefore, preventive measures must be maintained.