Statistical analysis on the COVID-19 infection spread in United State of America: A Prophet Forecasting Model

In the current scenario, the pandemic COVID-19 spread globally starting from the end of 2019, in Wuhan, a city of China. As per the current data taken up to 26th of May 2020, globally there are a huge number of people are affected (Approximately 3 billions) by the pandemic. Though the entire data varies depending upon the several parameters like, population size, congestion of area, climate condition, awareness of peoples etc. we have only analyzes on the data of the country USA. The entire data is partitioned into various categories such as: infected rate, mortality rate. A statistical analysis is prepared to analyze or predict the future strategies of the infected rate as well as the removal (Death/cured) rate. The growth of both the infected and the removed can be predicted with the same observed data taken on daily basis from 15th February 2020. We retrieved these data from an authenticate source provided by "Worldometer" (http://www.worldometers.info). However, Prophet Forecasting Model (PMF) is used to simulate and discussed for the prediction of the mortality rate, active rate due to pandemic COVID-19. The proposed method is also tested for accuracy of model via cross validation method.