Modelling of Churn in Indian Politics: A Case Study of Andhra Pradesh

India's nascent seventy-year-old democracy is witnessing unprecedented political volatility in the last three decades. New political fault lines, strong regional clusters and new electoral tipping points are combining together to drive a huge churn in the Indian voting pattern. This paper proposes a scoring technique for mathematically modelling churn. The Churn Score (C Score) has been calculated by analysing the data of the last five Assembly elections of the state of Andhra Pradesh. The data has been collected across all the 175 assembly constituencies. Since regional parties are gaining a strong foothold in Indian politics, the paper also proposes a Regionality Score (R Score). The two proposed scores help in advancing the understanding of political concepts like party loyalty, anti-incumbency and voter unpredictability.