Methodology for Determining Long-Term State Development Scenarios

The method of scenario forecasting of state development in the long term has been improved. The improved method solves the following tasks: determining the degree of influence of states on the development of events in the region; forming a reference scenario, which allows to obtain information about the deformation over time of the ability of states to influence events in the region; accounting for the influence of important areas of state functioning to assess the weak predicted important factors; defining a configuration of the domain of acceptable scenarios that allows some combination of scenarios that are not explicitly proposed by experts to be considered.