The Common Ancestor Time Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Based on Phylogenetic Analysis

At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. So far, the virus has spread globally. The rapid transmission and mutation have undoubtedly increased the difficulty of exploring the source of SARS-CoV-2, and it has made the origins study meaningful. This study uses 40,280 SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequences from the world for phylogenetic analysis. It is inferred that the time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (tMRCA) of global SARS-CoV-2 is roughly in early December 2019. Similarly, the tMRCA of SARS-CoV-2 in each continent is estimated, and sort out the timeline of the virus’s entry into human society. Also, it is found that some regions outside Asia have COVID-19 cases in December 2019.