New Reachability via the Influence of External Factors for Conflict Escalation and De-escalation

A new analysis method that describes the influence of external factors on state transitions in an interstate conflict has been developed using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). In this method, the external factors are assumed to be other than those attributed to the conflict’s decision-makers, while the analytical focus is on the resulting consequences. Thus, we assume that the primary decision-makers can be given new reachability through the influence of external factors, such as arbitrators and obstructionists. We examined the validity of this method by applying this new framework to the Cuban Missile Crisis.