Estimating Distribution of Cascaded Outages Using Observed Utility Data and Simulation Modeling

This paper estimated and analyzed the distribution of line outages during cascades in the power grid using both historical line outage data and simulation modeling. The complex interconnections of power system networks along with their ever-evolving unpredictable nature may sometimes interrupt the normal flow of electricity which may push the power grid to its critical limit resulting in cascading overload failures and blackouts. In this study, we have analyzed transmission network utility data to estimate the distribution of line outages during cascading processes. We also compared our empirical results with analytical results by simulating line outages during cascading processes in a synthetic 500 bus system incorporating a cascading failure simulation model with AC power flow.