Development of Probabilistic Model of Short-Term Power Supply Interruptions

The paper is devoted to the economic justification of technical solutions to reduce the consequences of voltage dips and interruptions in power supply systems based on the determination of damage from short-term power supply interruptions. The functions of the density of the voltage drop depth and the probability of the duration of the voltage drop in the power supply system of the oil fields are obtained, and the total probability of two independent events of a given depth and duration is determined. On the basis of the developed Markov model of short-term power supply failures, the probabilities of finding the power supply system in various states are obtained, which ultimately will allow determining the damage from emergency downtime of technological equipment.