Uncertainty Quantification of Loads and Correlated PVs on Power System Dynamic Simulations

This paper proposes a copula-based polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for quantifying correlated uncertain PVs and loads on power system dynamic simulations. The correlations among uncertain PVs are first extracted by copula statistics and further included into the revised PCE formulation. The PCE allows us to conveniently estimate the confidence intervals of system dynamic responses. The effects of different dependence structures of PVs and the number of uncertain sources are investigated using the modified IEEE 39-bus system. Comparison results with other methods show that the proposed method is able to accurately quantity the uncertain dynamic simulations while being computationally efficient.