Probalistic Energy Flow Calculation Method based on Event Tree Analysis

Due to the close interaction between different types of energy system, the accident in one system may spread to others, which will affect the operation of RIES. As a result, The event tree analysis (ETA) is adopted to describe how the initial accident propagates among systems step by step. Then, A probabilistic energy flow calculation method considering the uncertainties including source-load fluctuation and component unavailability rate can be developed. A test system with 119 nodes is investigated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.